what affects voter turnout blais

/Type /Page Recent developments warrant reconsideration. Blais (2006) found through a meta-analysis that factors affecting voter turnout can be broken down into three categories: voting institutions, socioeconomic environments, and party systems and electoral Three studies (e.g. However, both the resource and the latter "elite-power" model have drawn the criticism of other scholars. Annu. /ExtGState << /F2 49 0 R >> >> /X7 27 0 R To streamline these diverse findings, I have suggested three avenues for future research: (1) identify the context in which variables such as the electoral system type are salient; (2) systematically engage in comparative research that compares the turnout functions across various levels of analysis, countries or continents; and (3) focus on measurement of both the dependent variable and predictors of macro-level political participation such as development. I suggest three directions for future research: (1) studies should be more context specific; (2) they should engage in systematic comparisons; and (3) they should focus on measurement. Our work provides a comprehensive assessment of the power of polls and the implications for poll reporting in contemporary elections. >> /ca 1 For instance, Israel is a probable case of an underestimation of electoral participation. << /Resources << Nadeau, Richard /Xi24 116 0 R Third, the recent wave of turnout studies has brought new variables to the fore, such as religion, thus increasing the list of possible predictors for macro-level turnout. This more nuanced finding might stem from the fact that my analysis includes more studies and models, in particular more cases from non-Western countries. /F6 53 0 R 5 The decline in voter turnout may be the overall trend in developed countries, but >> Reference Wagner, Johann and Kritzinger2012). Daniel Stockemer is Associate Professor in the School of Political Studies at the University of Ottawa. Theoretically, there are strong arguments why proportional representation in large districts should trigger higher turnout. /Font << Found inside – Page 207“Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout.” International Review of Law and Economics 36 (2013): 25–35. Blais, André. “What Affects Voter Turnout? Education remains an important correlate of voting. The formula to calculate the effective number of parties is as follows (see Laakso and Taagepera Reference Laakso and Taagepera1979): In the formula, N is the number of parties that win seats, /Font << �[2{��o �O}�����m�glۣ�M�% 8�X�����^h?\mm ��&*���Dj��o]fGJy}�֥����W.�� In the empirical literature, turnout is mainly operationalized in two ways: (1) turnout as the percentage of registered voters that cast their ballot at a given election (RV turnout); or (2) turnout as the percentage of the voting-age population that turned out at an election (VAP turnout) (e.g. First, focusing more on institutions, I ask the question: are institutions still the most important predictors of turnout? 25 0 obj In addressing this simple question, Andre Blais examines the factors that increase or decrease turnout at the aggregate, cross-national level and considers what affects … Expand 955 /ProcSet [/PDF /Text /ImageB /ImageC /ImageI] In addition, Geys (Reference Geys2006) and Blais (Reference Blais2006) established the existence of two more relationships: that is, turnout increases when the election is decisive and when the population size is small. many of the Middle Eastern countries), but their education levels, and, in particular, their political education, might be rather low. /MediaBox [0 0 612 792] /BM /Normal However, cross-national aggregate analyses of ''economic voting'' show only weak and inconsistent economic effects. endobj With the approach of investigating different groups effect on voter turnout and if the effects magnitude fluctuates over time, it allows for generalizations with a higher level of confidence which is more relevant for the 21st century. the local, regional, national and sub-national level). For close or competitive elections, the expectations from theory are clear: close elections should trigger higher turnout (see, for example, Cann and Cole Reference Cann and Cole2011; Indridason Reference Indridason2008; Simonovits and Rajk Reference Simonovits and Rajk2012). Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press. /ExtGState << Park, Brandon Beomseob /Type /Page For example, in Germany, every German national who has his or her first residency in the country is automatically registered. While there are many ways of operationalizing the importance of elections, the most widely used operationalization is by the type of election (e.g. 2017. et al. >> Looking first at trends in the aggregate data, we find no evidence that voter identification requirements reduce participation . >> Results Why is turnout higher in some countries and/or in some elections than in others? /ExtGState << number of visits to a state by the president), campaign spending, campaign financing, capital flows as a percentage of the GDP, civic education, compulsory voting (sanctions/no sanctions), coalition government, closeness of the election, communist parties’ strength, communism (post-communism), concurrent elections, contested elections, corruption (e.g. I also calculate the success rate for each variable (computed as the percentage of times that the variable in question met the theoretical expectations and showed a significant relationship in the ‘right’ direction). First, given that the two existing turnout studies by Blais (Reference Blais2006) and Geys (Reference Geys2006) were published more than 10 years ago, it has provided a much-needed update on the state of the macro-level turnout literature. 89 Words1 Page. << In this work, we estimate the effects of poll exposure using an experimental design in which we randomly assign the availability of polls to participants in simulated election campaigns. /ProcSet [/PDF /Text /ImageB /ImageC /ImageI] /Contents [117 0 R 118 0 R 119 0 R] Third, studies have looked at turnout across more and more levels of government, including the supra-national level such as European elections or the sub-national level such as regional- or municipal-level elections (Jeffrey and Hough Reference Jeffrey and Hough2003). López, Fernando Table 6 Summary of the Effect of Population Size on Electoral Turnout. In this research note we investigate whether rainfall during the Election Day reduces voter turnout. >> Community volunteers and local advocates are trying to change this — trying to get voters out to the polls to make . Found inside – Page 216Achen, C. and Blais, A. (2010) Intention to Vote, Reported Vote, and Validated Vote. ... Blais, A. (2006) 'What affects voter turnout?'. In this Article, we use a historical dataset with elections and census data dating back to 1890 to examine whether popular and legislative referenda also affect turnout. Turnout studies are ever expanding. /Font << /GS1 46 0 R 2004). /CropBox [72 72 504 720] /CropBox [72 72 504 720] /Parent 5 0 R /ProcSet [/PDF /Text /ImageB /ImageC /ImageI] Second, I want to find out whether ‘new’ predictors of turnout have come to the fore over the past 10 years. /F5 52 0 R /Pages 2 0 R The paper reviews the debate over the various dimensions of electoral systems. 20 0 obj This meta-analysis confirms this stipulation. "newCiteModal": false, /F6 53 0 R Fifth, and probably most importantly, more so than Cancela and Gey’s (2016), my study highlights that there is still no established core model of electoral turnout. What Affects Voter Turnout? 2019. Power Reference Power2009). endobj In the theoretical literature there seems to be some consensus that smaller countries, frequently because of more homogeneous citizenries, closer relations between citizens and representatives, and the relatively close geographical distance between citizens and the administrative capital of the country, have higher turnout (Kostandinova and Power Reference Kostadinova and Power2007). Studies also differ on the base on which turnout is calculated, some taking religious doctrine, ethnic fractionalization, corruption or globalization); it has become more methodologically sophisticated by using more advanced modelling techniques; it has systematically evaluated turnout outside the Western world; and it has measured turnout at different levels of analysis (e.g. B. Voter turnout was 100%. Descriptive statistics for voter turnout in the Republic of Korea demonstrate that the turnout of Presidential elections is substantially higher than National Assembly elections and local elections. This hypothesis is tested using cross-sectional and pooled time series data for nineteen industrial democracies and the fifty American states. >> /XObject << and /Type /Catalog A large literature has demonstrated that such economic factors as growth, inflation, and unemployment affect the popularity of incumbents within many democratic countries. Due to the sheer number of concepts covered by this meta-analysis (this review covers more than 50 concepts and more than 100 different variables), I do not aim to explain the particular result obtained in any individual study. 4 /Rotate 0 In the 2019 federal election, voter turnout in Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou was just 49.8 per cent, well under the rate for Quebec as a whole. >> Do these studies, which have been conducted in all regions of the world, across various geographical units, and which have brought to the fore more factors (e.g. However, more than half of the studies (19 out of 33) indicated that this relationship is non-existent. Abstract. >> The number of parties that win seats is another relatively widely used indicator in turnout models (e.g. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press. 2018. Vice versa, VAP turnout should overestimate ‘real’ turnout in Macedonia. However, there is no consensus in the literature as to whether mixed electoral systems are in a category of their own. 16 0 obj 2020. How does poverty influence political participation? For example, the three studies that examine whether weekday or weekend voting influences turnout find that weekend voting does not significantly increase voter turnout (e.g. /Kids [17 0 R 18 0 R 19 0 R 20 0 R 21 0 R 22 0 R 23 0 R] 8 It deals with 'simple' descriptive questions and establishes the basic turnout patterns. /Resources << /Parent 2 0 R Found inside – Page 426Blais, André (2006) What Affects Voter Turnout? Annual Review of Political Science, 9, 111–25. ... Does Proportional Representation Foster Voter Turnout? /F5 146 0 R /Rotate 0 7 Klemmensen, Hobolt, Petersen, Skytthe, and Norgaard (2010) and Funk et al. Existing and older systems are classified under those headings and their main features are described. which has been the focus of most research. Annual Review of Political Science, Vol. There are substantial life cycle effects – that is, turnout shifts within a given cohort as members of that cohort grow older. As well, this study incorporates two other factors that can affect the propensity to vote – respondents' level of political interest and their sense of duty. Of the 93 models that gauged the influence of the number of parliamentary parties on electoral turnout, 22 studies found that more parties trigger higher turnout, 13 displayed a negative relationship and the overall majority of 59 models revealed that there is no relationship. << /Font << /ProcSet [/PDF /Text /ImageB /ImageC /ImageI] At present no less than 29 countries, totalling about one-fifth of the world's population, use mixed systems for elections to their first or single chamber. endobj /F5 52 0 R articles by Powell (1986) and Jackman (1987). Found insideWhat affects voter turnout? Annual Review of Political Science 9, 111–125. Blais, André and Aarts, Kees. 2006. Electoral systems and turnout. /Filter /FlateDecode This paper uses rational voting behavior as an organizing device to develop a framework within which to consider the effect of economic aggregates on voters. Blais, A. institutions, electoral systems, party systems, closeness, Why is turnout higher in some countries and/or in some elections than. The most important socioeconomic factor affecting voter turnout is education. 27 0 obj Finally, studies that include a wide, When and where is turnout highest and lowest and why? Moreover, turnout varies substantially over time and across types of elections within a country as well as across countries. Our results have implications for postal voting reforms or postponing of large-scale, in-person (electoral) events during viral outbreaks. >> Fourth, my study highlights that the influence of many of the predictors of turnout that have been recently added to turnout studies such as corruption or income inequalities vary from study to study; thus my study suggests more context-specific analyses. These databases are ProQuest Political Science, PAIS International, EBSCO International Political Science Abstracts and International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS). /Rotate 0 Other ridings in Alberta also have low voter turnout; this was the lowest. 6 /Xi26 121 0 R Socioeconomic factors play a very powerful role in voter turnout so it is very important to control for that in the study of voter turnout amongst various countries (Blais and Dobrzynska 2003). female literacy rates), high competition electoral environment (e.g. "Compulsory voting increases turnout" can be construed as a well-established proposition. first-order versus second-order elections). Inglehart Reference Inglehart1997) and classical sociological approaches (Wolfinger and Rosenstone Reference Wolfinger and Rosenstone1980) postulate that material affluence should foster participatory democracy and political engagement, including voting in elections (Burns et al. Dodson Reference Dodson2010), but this finding is preliminary at best. /XObject << /F1 48 0 R Lebeda, Tomáš Unlike most previous studies, ours permits the voter to vote for candidates of either party or to abstain. The above issues are much related to the topic of how the voting system is designed. endobj For each individual indicator, I then present the following information: the absolute number of times the variable in question is used in the 135 turnout studies in my sample, the number of times it is statistically significant according to theoretical expectations, the number of times it shows the reverse rather than the expected relationship, and the number of times the variable is non-significant. /Contents [56 0 R 57 0 R 58 0 R] Third, by looking at several operationalizations of the same concept, I highlight that any concept’s influence on turnout might be partially dependent on its operationalization. /Rotate 0 /ca .2 22 0 obj >> Polit. Methodologically, these surveys tended to produce higher turnout rates than official rates, in particular because of the social desirability of stating that one had indeed voted. Overall, our evidence provides support for the idea that retail shareholders utilize their voting power to monitor firms and communicate with incumbent boards and management. turnout" (Blais, 2006, .114). This theory sees a close connection between the distribution of income and the distribution of power. "metricsAbstractViews": false, >> 10 Henderson and McEwen Reference Henderson and McEwen2010). Second, while it is unclear how Cancela and Geys (2016) retrieved their studies (they include books, book chapters and articles), I engage in a systematic search of English-language articles that use macro-level turnout as the dependent variable. >> Det empiriska kapitlet innehÃ¥ller främst den teoretiska referensrammen, undersökningsdesign samt nÃ¥gra inledande bivariata regressioner. /F7 47 0 R Horn Reference Horn2011; Stockemer and Scruggs Reference Stockemer and Scruggs2012) (see Table 7). 6 "shouldUseHypothesis": true, This indicates that lowering the voting age might not be as detrimental as some studies assume (e.g. /F5 52 0 R >> /GS1 46 0 R In contrast, the empirical record for other predictors of electoral participation such as the electoral system type, the number of parties or electoral closeness does not provide any clear relationship. Cancela and Geys (2016) highlight that there is variation in the predictors of turnout between different levels (e.g. Found inside – Page 12Electoral Institutions Evidence on whether other aspects of the institutional context, particularly the electoral system, affect voting turnout is ... /Subtype /Image We find that—despite voting at much higher rates—individuals induced to vote, regardless of the mode used to mobilize, are (precisely) no different from all-else-equal individuals that are not. Much of the voter turnout literature is cross sectional in nature, where cross country differences in political institutions are used to explain differences in turnout, INTRODUCTION If President Abraham Lincoln was right, and democracy is government of the people, by the people, and for the people, then how should democratic citizens handle situations where the methods of direct democracy serve only certain people's interests? tem feature. The Blais article examines the current research on compulsory voting and determines that the research is unclear on the needed punishment to compel turnout. Found insideThis volume provides an in-depth exploration of the origins and effects of electoral systems. This article discusses the turnout in elections. Found inside – Page 39A review of issues affecting voter turnout is found in Andre Blais, “What Affects Voter Turnout?” Annual Review of Political Science 9 (June 2006), pp. For example, some studies are international in scope and use a global perspective (e.g. Martinez i Coma, Ferran >> /Font << (WNDU) - Constitution Day is Friday, Sept. 17, but it was being celebrated Wednesday at IU South Bend, where most students don't have classes on Friday. Found inside – Page 272Electoral Studies, 31(3), 588–93. Blais, A., 2006, 'What affects voter turnout?' Annual Review of Political Science, 9, 111–25. Blais, A., 2010, 'Political ... endobj The question should no longer be: do PR, the number of parties or development increase turnout? /Parent 5 0 R << 30 August 2016. McGregor, R. Michael The article "What Affects Voter Turnout" by André Blais explores significant information related to the reasons why the United States faces lower voter turnout rates as opposed to other regions. A Semiparametric Geographically Weighted Regression (SGWR) model enabled the investigation of local variations in turnout values, simultaneously considering that its relationship with some variables might vary over space. the per cent of exports of the GDP, or the KOF globalization index). 2006.9:111-125. Data from the November 1974 Current Population Survey are used to estimate the effect that unemployment, poverty, and a decline in financial well-being have on voter turnout.
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